This report presents the findings of a strategic foresight study designed to support European Union policymaking and strategic planning, with a particular focus on Research and Innovation (R&I) investments under the destination A Disaster-Resilient Society for Europe. As Europe faces an increasingly complex, interconnected, and rapidly evolving risk environment, the study adopts a forward-looking, capability-based approach to strengthen preparedness, resilience, and response across the Union.
The study applies a comprehensive strategic foresight methodology that combines literature review, horizon scanning, expert surveys, stakeholder interviews, and participatory workshops. This iterative process enabled the identification, validation, and prioritisation of the operational capabilities and emerging technologies most critical for disaster and infrastructure resilience through to 2040. Drawing on both quantitative and qualitative evidence, the analysis identified 12 priority operational capabilities and 12 high-potential emerging technologies with the greatest relevance for future European resilience.
The research is built around a capability-centred framework that places operational needs at the heart of the analysis and connects them with technological innovation and strategic policy objectives. This framework provides a structured basis for identifying capability gaps, defining research priorities, and guiding future investments, while ensuring that R&I efforts remain closely aligned with operational requirements. By embedding strategic foresight throughout the process, the study also explores long-term trends, emerging risks, uncertainties, and potential disruptions, enabling more anticipatory, adaptive, and resilient policymaking.
By connecting policy priorities, operational realities, and technological innovation, this report provides an evidence-based foundation for future EU action on disaster and infrastructure resilience. It supports more coherent investment decisions, strengthens cross-sector collaboration, and demonstrates how strategic foresight can be integrated into long-term planning to enhance Europe’s civil security and resilience in an increasingly uncertain future.